From Macro to Micro | October 2, 2026

October 2, 2026

Are Treasuries A Buy?

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury hit 5.30%, according to Bloomberg. This is the highest this bond yield has been since July of 2007.

For bondholders, it has not been a good ride with yields increasing from 4% to 5.3%, a move of 1.3 percentage points since February 26 of this year. Since the pandemic, yields have surged from 0.53% in August of 2020.

10-year US Treasury Yield, Bloomberg, 9/30/26

The chart above shows that for many years the yield has been much higher than 5.0%. The question that is on investors’ minds and one I was asked about recently on Bloomberg is: are bonds a buy now with rates this high? It’s times like these that I genuinely wish I actually had a working crystal ball under my desk. Even the best bond managers don’t know exactly what will happen next. Are Treasury bonds more attractive than they were in February? Certainly. Are bond yields likely to drop from this level? Maybe.

The technician in me would say if rates hold above the 5% level, rates could move higher. This is a classic breakout higher. The financial analyst in me would say that, based on mean reversion, valuation and possibly increased demand to hold bonds at better yields, rates may come down from here. It’s times like these that it’s helpful to be diversified and not be too concentrated in one position, one sector, or one maturity.

Having acknowledged that yields can move either up or down from here, here are a few thoughts on why I think bond yields may actually come down:

• Bond yields have tended to move in the direction of oil prices. Higher energy prices have led to concerns about higher inflation, and higher inflation worries have led to higher rates. Should things settle down in the Middle East, energy prices are likely to come down, and rates probably would also. Should the conflict continue to drag on, rates will likely stay higher.
• As rates move higher, they become more attractive for would-be bondholders and institutional bond investors. Unless there is rampant bad, persistent inflation pushing prices higher across the board and the Fed is aggressively hiking, bond yields are likely to stay somewhat range-bound, in my opinion.
• Changes in the makeup of Congress and the executive branch sometimes reset spending levels, and deficits could normalize some. A divided Congress or a Congress that is opposite the executive branch could reduce spending. This is why gridlock is sometimes good for stocks and bonds.
• Higher economic growth can mean higher tax revenue. Higher tax revenue can be used to pay down the national debt. It’s not a guarantee that it will reduce the debt, but it makes paying for the growing interest easier and possibly without having to keep increasing the debt ceiling.

For investors, we believe times like these still largely come down to prudence, planning, sticking to one’s long-term objectives, and not taking too many idiosyncratic or concentrated risks – whether they be in the stock market or in the bond market.

Definitions

S&P 500: A stock market index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It serves as a primary benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. stock market.

10-year US Treasury note: A government debt security issued by the US Department of the Treasury that pays the holder a fixed interest rate every six months and matures in 10 years, at which time the principal amount is returned to the investor.

GDP: The value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Carry Trade: The net return you make simply by holding an asset for the long run, despite its near-term price fluctuations. Think of it as the income that an asset generates while sitting in your portfolio, minus the ongoing costs to finance, insure and / or store it. Essentially, being paid to wait is the foundational concept beneath the developed world and our entire financial system.

Term Premium: The extra compensation or higher yield that investors demand for holding a long-term bond instead of a series of short-term bonds. That added return protects investors against the increased uncertainty and price volatility of locking their money up over time. The 10-year US government bond yield minus the average expected federal funds rate over the next 10 years. Conceptually, the “term premium” – which has risen sharply – is a nebulous “catchall” for a variety of different forces unexplained by monetary policy (e.g., supply, inflation, real growth, expected volatility).

NBER Recession: A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, as officially designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. It is determined by analyzing factors like gross domestic product, income and employment.

U.S. Treasury bonds and notes: Debt securities issued by the U.S. government. The 10-year Treasury is a note. References to Treasury bonds in this commentary use the term broadly.

Yield and maturity: Yield is a measure of income or return relative to a bond’s price. Yield to maturity estimates the annualized return if held to maturity, assuming scheduled payments and reinvestment at that yield. Maturity is the date principal is due.

Basis points and percentage points: One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. A rise from 4.0% to 5.3% is 1.3 percentage points, or 130 basis points.

Mean reversion and valuation: Mean reversion is the tendency for a measure to move toward a historical average; it is not assured. Valuation assesses an investment’s price in relation to its expected cash flows, risks, and alternatives.

Technical breakout and range-bound: A breakout is a move beyond a previously observed trading level. Range-bound describes movement within a relatively limited range. Neither pattern assures future results.

Diversification and idiosyncratic risk: Diversification spreads investments across holdings or exposures. Idiosyncratic risk is risk specific to an issuer or investment; concentration increases exposure to a particular holding, sector, or maturity.

Inflation and the Fed: Inflation is an increase in the general price level. The Fed is the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank. Hiking refers to raising its policy interest rate.

Federal deficit, national debt, and debt ceiling: A federal deficit occurs when federal spending exceeds revenue over a period. National debt is outstanding federal borrowing. The debt ceiling is the statutory limit on federal borrowing to meet existing obligations.

Disclosures

This material reflects the author’s opinions as of September 30, 2026, and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions may change without notice. Statements about future interest rates, inflation, energy prices, fiscal policy, and market outcomes are forward-looking and uncertain. Actual outcomes may differ materially.

This material is not individualized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation to adopt any particular investment strategy. Investors should consider their objectives, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification and risk management do not guarantee a profit or protect against losses in declining markets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Historical yields, price patterns, and relationships among oil prices, inflation, interest rates, fiscal policy, and markets do not assure future outcomes. A quoted Treasury yield is not a guaranteed total return for an investor.

Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise, and longer-maturity bonds are generally more sensitive to rate changes. Bonds also involve inflation and reinvestment risk. U.S. Treasury principal and interest payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government; this backing does not protect market value or prevent losses on a sale before maturity.

The views expressed are for informational and educational purposes only and are subject to change without notice.

This material is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, sector, industry, or investment strategy.

References to specific companies, securities, sectors, or industries are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in a specific industry or sector may involve greater risk and volatility than more diversified investments.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

Forward-looking statements, including views about future demand, pricing, supply, or industry cycles, are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially.

Data and information are believed to be reliable, but accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Source documents should be retained for factual claims, third-party research references, and company-specific data.

Portfolio holdings, allocations, and risk budgets are subject to change based on market conditions, client objectives, and investment guidelines.

The author, firm, clients, or related persons may hold positions in securities mentioned and may buy or sell those securities without notice, subject to applicable policies and regulations.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advice offered through WCG Wealth Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. WCG Wealth Advisors, LLC and The Wealth Consulting Group are separate entities from LPL Financial. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

All information in this report is believed to be from reliable sources; however, WCG Wealth Advisors, LLC, makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the companies as well as broad market, economic and political conditions. Stock investing involves risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal. Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time. (135-LPL) International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. (93-LPL)

The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors. (122-LPL)

Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss. (28-LPL)

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. (26-LPL)

Standard deviation is a historical measure of the variability of returns relative to the average annual return. If a portfolio has a high standard deviation, its returns have been volatile. A low standard deviation indicates returns have been less volatile. (131-LPL)

This is for educational / general purposes only, does not constitute investment, tax or legal advice and should not be relied on as such. This is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any strategies discussed are not intended to be relied upon as the sole factor in making an investment decision for any individual. As with all investments there are associated inherent risks. Please obtain and review all financial material carefully before investing. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. These comments should not be construed as recommendations but as an illustration of broader themes.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. In addition, forward-looking statements, including index targets or market scenarios, are hypothetical in nature, reflect current views and assumptions and are subject to change based on market and economic conditions and are not guarantees of future performance. This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific investment. Your results may vary. (88-LPL) Scenario outcomes are illustrative and not predictive. This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. (102-LPL)

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

Publication Date: October 2, 2026

For Public Use in the US

The Wealth Consulting Group

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